On-chain analysis week 44/2026 : A "Synchronization" with the macroeconomic environment

Analyst Research Team

Group On-chain HCCVenture

Market Summary

At the beginning of November, the True Market Mean was around $77,700, while the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis was around $75,700. After maintaining above the True Market Mean during two corrections in October, Bitcoin closed below this level on November 3rd, recording a session low of around $76,100 before recovering.

Following its recovery in August-September, Bitcoin regained several key technical and valuation levels lost after its 2025 all-time high, including the 200-day moving average, Short-Term Holder Cost Basis, and True Market Mean. These are significant benchmarks for assessing short-term investor positions as well as the average cost basis of active entities on the network.

In early October 2026, the STH Supply in Profit ratio remained around 97.5% or higher. This indicates that almost all of the Bitcoin held by short-term investors is in the process of realizing profits. Historically, this situation often occurs when prices rise rapidly and a large number of new investors entering the market have a cost advantage, increasing the incentive to take profits.

Liquidation Heatmap data shows that the correction from the September peak has swept through most of the liquidation zones for long positions accumulated since August. This is a crucial factor because the excessive concentration of leveraged long positions can increase the risk of a chain sell-off when prices fall sharply. After the correction, the density of liquidity below the price has decreased significantly. The remaining notable zones are concentrated in the range of $73,000-$76,000, corresponding to the STH cost basis and the 200-day moving average according to the provided data.

Options data shows that the total open interest for major expiration dates on November 27th and December 25th reached approximately $5.7 billion and $12.5 billion, respectively. The corresponding Max Pain levels are at $80,000 and $76,000, on opposite sides of the spot price range mentioned in the report. Therefore, the Max Pain data currently does not provide a clear direction for Bitcoin's price.

On October 29th, Binance announced a hacking incident involving approximately $6.3 billion worth of assets, according to the platform's own data. According to the provided research, this is considered the largest incident in the history of the cryptocurrency industry in terms of the scale of assets affected. However, Bitcoin's market reaction was relatively limited. The price only dropped by about 3% in the days following the event and then recovered to near its pre-discharge levels.

Analyzing on-chain metrics

In recent days, the market witnessed a Binance hack that resulted in the loss of approximately $6.3 billion in assets, exceeding the $1.5 billion loss of the Bybit hack in February 2025 – the incident that previously held the record for the largest hack ever recorded. In terms of scale, the Binance hack was approximately 4.2 times larger than the Bybit hack, representing a 320% increase over the previous record.

More notably, the total value of the remaining nine attacks only reached approximately $5.46 billion. Thus, the Binance incident alone exceeded the combined size of all nine incidents by about $840 million, equivalent to approximately 15.4%. This is a significant difference, reflecting an unusual concentration of risk in a single incident. It's not simply an increase in absolute value, but also demonstrates the potential consequences of asset concentration points and operational risks within the digital financial system.

From a risk analysis perspective, the potential to freeze nearly half of the affected asset value is a noteworthy factor. This suggests that coordination between stablecoin issuers, blockchain infrastructure managers, and trading platforms could play a crucial role in limiting asset flows after large-scale incidents. However, the effectiveness of this measure still depends on the type of asset, the ability to control wallet addresses, and the speed of response from all parties involved.

In essence, this event significantly increased awareness of the risks associated with asset concentration and operational security within the cryptocurrency ecosystem. While the ability to freeze assets and the commitment to compensate for losses helped stabilize sentiment, they did not completely eliminate the risks related to security, liquidity, and trust in centralized trading platforms.

For the expiration date of November 27, 2026, the total value of Call Open Interest reached approximately $3.05 billion, higher than the Put Open Interest of about $2.55 billion. The Put/Call ratio of 0.84 indicates that the size of Call contracts is relatively dominant over Put contracts. Notably, the strike price of $90,000 recorded the largest amount of Call Open Interest, valued at approximately $538 million.

The gap between the current price and $90,000 is approximately 13.9%, indicating that the options market is maintaining a significant position in the scenario of BTC recovering to higher price levels before expiration. Conversely, Put Open Interest is significantly concentrated around $75,000, with a size of approximately $445 million. This is about 5.1% lower than the spot price, reflecting a concentration of bearish hedging contracts relatively close to the current market.

The very narrow gap between the spot price and the Max Pain indicates that the current market is near a price range where the total settlement value of option contracts tends to be most unfavorable to option holders according to the Max Pain model. However, this is not a target price or a guarantee that BTC will reach $80,000 upon expiration.

However, the concentration of Call orders in the $90,000-$100,000 range is not sufficient grounds to conclude that the market has formed a new uptrend. The current BTC price is around $79,000, while the largest Call clusters remain significantly higher. For this structure to translate into a clearer positive signal, the market needs to see an increase in spot price accompanied by actual trading volume, while maintaining prices above the areas of concentrated liquidity and key option positions.

Bitcoin continues to maintain a significantly higher cumulative performance than the US stock market. However, this advantage is no longer uniformly evident in the short term. The percentage of Bitcoin trading sessions outperforming the S&P 500 has returned to around 50%, reflecting a balance in the frequency of outperformance. Nevertheless, the average outperformance per session has shifted into positive territory, suggesting that Bitcoin is showing signs of improving relative performance after a period of weakness in 2026.

In terms of index gains, Bitcoin recorded an increase of approximately 560%, while the S&P 500 rose by about 120% over the same period. This difference shows that Bitcoin has generated superior cumulative returns compared to the US stock market, despite periods of deep corrections and high volatility in the cycle.

Notably, while the winning streak rate is only 50%, the average outperformance has increased by 0.3 percentage points. This implies that Bitcoin is outperforming the S&P 500 on average during the measurement period, even though the frequency of outperformances is not yet higher than the stock market. In other words, the current improvement is more evident in the relative quality of returns rather than the number of outperformances.

However, a 50% win rate is not enough to confirm a sustained overtrend. To solidify the recovery signal, this indicator needs to remain above 50% and gradually move towards the 55-60% range, similar to periods when Bitcoin had a clear advantage in the past. Simultaneously, the average overtrend profit needs to continue to remain in positive territory rather than just a short-term recovery.

During the 2026 election, Bitcoin recorded an increase of approximately 1.8% over two days compared to its closing price on election day. The black line shows that Bitcoin experienced volatility leading up to the election but maintained a positive trend at the time the event occurred. After two days, the price recorded an increase of approximately 1.8% compared to its closing price on election day.

This result differs from 2022, when Bitcoin fell 14.9% on the first day after the election. At the same time, it hasn't shown similar signs to the 2014 and 2018 cycles, which both recorded deep declines over the following 39-71 days.

• Data from 2014 shows that Bitcoin entered the post-election period with relatively positive volatility initially, but then shifted to a downward trend. The price dropped to a low of approximately 46.7% 71 days after the election.

• 2018 saw a more severe decline. Bitcoin continued to fall after the election and hit a low of approximately 50.6% after 39 days. This was the deepest correction in the three historical cycles shown on the chart.

History shows that the risk of a post-election correction was evident in 2014 and 2018, but not in 2022. With the 2026 cycle, the current trend still leans towards stability, with Bitcoin maintaining a 1.8% increase over two days. There isn't enough data to confirm a post-election downturn. The trend needs to be assessed based on the ability to maintain the closing price on election day and price movements in the following weeks, rather than mechanically applying the correction levels of previous cycles.

In early September, Bitcoin underwent a significant correction before a strong recovery, reaching a peak of approximately 8–9% by the end of the month. This was a superior performance compared to both the S&P 500 and the Euro Stoxx 50 during the same period. However, the upward momentum was not sustained. Entering October, Bitcoin continuously declined, especially in the latter half of the month, causing its accumulated performance to return to negative territory.

From a peak performance of approximately +9% to its current level of -1.9%, Bitcoin has lost about 10.9 percentage points of relative gains. This is a significant reversal in less than two months, indicating that selling pressure has prevailed after the previous growth phase. However, considering the entire observation period, Bitcoin has still outperformed the Euro Stoxx 50 and gold, suggesting that the asset's decline has not been as severe as some traditional asset classes.

Notably, following the Binance hack on October 29, 2026, Bitcoin continued to face downward pressure, at times falling even further from its initial performance. However, data at the end of the chart shows a partial price recovery, ending the observation period at -1.9%. This development suggests the market absorbed some of the shock without forming a prolonged sell-off commensurate with the scale of the event.

Overall, Bitcoin's current trend still leans towards accumulation and an incomplete recovery, rather than a confirmed uptrend. The fact that performance has returned to negative territory after peaking at nearly 9% suggests the market still lacks sufficient momentum to sustain an upward trend.

The percentage of tokens with Short-Term Holder SOPR (STH-SOPR) greater than 1 has sharply declined from approximately 80% at the beginning of October 2026 to 13% at the end of the chart. This decline, equivalent to 67 percentage points, indicates a significant reversal in the profitability of short-term investors within a relatively short period. Currently, only about 13% of the tracked tokens have recorded profitable sales, while the remaining 87% are not in a profitable state.

Observing the data series from 2021 to November 2026 reveals that the proportion of tokens with STH-SOPR greater than 1 typically fluctuates sharply during market growth and correction cycles. During periods of market expansion, this proportion frequently rises to the 75-95% range, reflecting that a large portion of the assets are traded by short-term investors capable of generating profits upon selling. Conversely, during downturns, the proportion often quickly narrows to below 25%, even approaching 0% at certain critical points in the cycle.

Considering the entire observational history, the current 13% level is approaching the deep decline zones seen during previous correction phases. However, the chart still shows some points in the past where the decline rate was close to 0%, so the current level cannot be considered an absolute historical bottom. More importantly, the rate of decline from 80% to 13% indicates that the shift from a widespread profitable state to a loss-making state has occurred on a large scale.

Current spot trading volume stands at approximately $6.5 billion per day, significantly higher than the average before the August 2026 bull run, but still considerably lower than the most active periods in the previous cycle.

Historically, spot trading volume peaked at approximately $33 billion per day in November 2024. This period saw a surge in trading activity, coinciding with the expansion of Bitcoin's price and increased participation from various investor groups. Following this point, liquidity continued to experience spikes in 2025, but the overall trend began to weaken in 2026.

However, compared to the period before the August 2026 bull run, current data shows more positive signs. The average volume before the bull run was approximately $4.4 billion/day, while the volume recorded on November 3rd reached $6.5 billion/day, about 47.7% higher. This suggests that liquidity has not yet returned to the weakened state it was in before the bull market. Trading volume remains above the baseline, although not yet sufficient to confirm a new liquidity expansion cycle.

Therefore, the current liquidity level cannot yet be considered conclusive evidence that new capital is returning on a large scale. To confirm a sustainable improvement, a sustained increase in spot volume over several weeks is needed, along with an assessment of the contribution of various trading sources, particularly US spot ETFs. A price increase accompanied by a synchronized expansion of liquidity would be a better confirmation than mere price fluctuations.

According to the HCCVenture chart, the STH Supply in Profit ratio has now decreased to 38%, significantly lower than the 97.5% threshold identified as the profit-taking warning point (Sell Line). This means that approximately 62% of the supply, held by short-term investors, is trading below cost or has not yet generated a profit at the time of observation. This represents a significant change from early October 2026, when this ratio reached around 97.5-100%, reflecting a situation where the majority of new investors were already profitable.

Notably, during the sharp downturns of 2019, early 2020, and especially 2022, the chart shows several instances where STH Supply in Profit approached 0%. These extreme levels represent a severe decline in profits for short-term investors. Compared to these lowest points, the current 38% is still significantly higher, indicating that the market has not yet reached a point where almost all STH supply is incurring losses.

However, compared to the most recent state at the beginning of October 2026, the drop from approximately 97.5-100% to 38% indicates a very large reversal. The percentage of profitable supply has decreased by approximately 59.5-62 percentage points. This change reflects a correction process that has directly impacted the group of investors participating in the market over the past 155 days, significantly weakening their ability to maintain profitable positions.

The majority of supply is currently below cost, meaning widespread profit-taking has subsided compared to early October. Instead, the more significant risk is the pressure to cut losses or reduce holdings if Bitcoin prices continue to weaken and this group of investors hasn't held long enough to transition to long-term positions. When the Supply in Profit ratio (STH) drops significantly, the market may see a shift in supply from investors who bought at high prices to those with a higher risk tolerance.

The BTC 1-Month Realized Volatility chart reflects the actual volatility Bitcoin is experiencing during a significant contraction in October 2026, before recovering to a substantial 36% increase from the previous month. However, considering the entire data series from July 2022, the current volatility remains significantly lower than periods of high trading intensity and volatility in the market.

From the 23% level, the index has recovered to 36%, equivalent to an increase of approximately 56.5%. This is a significant expansion in a short period, reflecting a return to increased price volatility after a relatively quiet market period. However, 36% is still much lower than the 70-80% peaks seen in recent history. Therefore, it can be concluded that volatility is recovering from the lows, but has not yet returned to a state of high volatility.

Notably, during the summer of 2023, Realized Volatility briefly fell to 16%, before entering a period of widening volatility in the following months. While the 2026 scenario may not necessarily repeat the 2023 pattern, the similarity in low volatility suggests the market has now passed through a period of significant volatility contraction.

The increase in Realized Volatility may stem from an expansion in price range over the past 30 days, including both sharp increases and decreases. Therefore, this increase should not be equated with buying pressure or bullish momentum, indicating that the market has not yet entered a state of extreme volatility similar to previous periods of correction or strong growth.

Unlike simply observing the performance of BTC or a few leading Altcoins, this indicator shows how many assets are maintaining a positive price structure across longer timeframes. When the percentage increases, the uptrend is more widespread; conversely, when the percentage decreases, it suggests that more Altcoins are losing their ability to maintain prices above the 200-day moving average.

Notably, the recovery in 2026 was relatively rapid. From around 25% in June 2026, the percentage of Altcoins above the 200-day moving average rose to over 80% by early October, before peaking at 88%. Thus, market breadth expanded by approximately 63 percentage points in less than a half-year cycle, indicating that the recovery momentum was not concentrated in a few individual assets but spread to a large portion of the tracked Altcoin group.

However, the decline from 88% to 66% suggests that this expansion is losing momentum. In relative terms, a 22 percentage point drop is equivalent to approximately 25% from the peak rate. This indicates that a significant portion of altcoins have failed to maintain their price position above the 200-day moving average.

Although the current percentage remains above the 50% threshold, the market has lost the strong bullish consensus seen in early October, and if the index continues to decline and falls below 50%, it would mark a reversal in market breadth, as most Altcoins in the watchlist no longer maintain a positive long-term price structure.

Supply distribution data shows that the LTH group is concentrating a significant amount of Bitcoin in the $84,000–$117,000 price range, forming an upper supply resistance zone in the market. Conversely, the STH group is forming notable supply clusters around $77,000 and $64,000. This structure reflects the market being below the key cost levels for many long-term investors, while also depending on the ability of short-term holders to maintain support levels.

Structurally, $84,000 is the first resistance level that needs to be conquered, while the higher price range, especially from $100,000 to $117,000, continues to contain supply that could potentially create selling pressure during the recovery. Therefore, Bitcoin's rebound above $84,000 is not enough to confirm that long-term supply pressure has been fully absorbed. The market needs to maintain its upward momentum and absorb supply at higher price levels.

If Bitcoin fails to reclaim the $77,000 level soon, this area could shift from support to short-term resistance. In that case, selling pressure from investors looking to exit positions upon price recovery could limit further upside potential. Conversely, the $64,000 level is the next support point to watch if corrective pressure continues to expand. This area contains a significant supply cluster of STH and could act as a selling pressure absorber in the event of a deeper market decline.

Considering the period from January 2024 to November 2026, the $84,000–$85,000 range experienced two distinct market phases. In December 2025, this area was tested twice and acted as support for Bitcoin's price. This indicates that at that time, the demand around this price level was sufficient to absorb selling pressure and maintain the upward price structure.

Repeated failures in the same area indicate that the $84,000-$85,000 range is no longer simply a technical resistance level. It also represents a significant cost basis for investors who accumulated Bitcoin in previous phases. When the price rebounds, some investors may take advantage of the opportunity to reduce their positions or recover capital, thereby creating additional supply in the market.

Conversely, Bitcoin's drop to $75,700 has widened the gap between the market price and the resistance zone. Compared to the test on October 21st, the current price is approximately 10.2% lower. This indicates that the recovery momentum has weakened after the most recent failure, and reflects the market's inability to re-establish equilibrium above $84,000.

It's important to emphasize that the cost basis indicator doesn't mean all supply in the $84,000-$85,000 range will be sold when the price approaches. However, the supply density and the history of repeated rejections in this area make it a region to watch closely when assessing the potential for a trend reversal.

According to HCCVenture data, the 2026 cycle bottom is identified on June 30, 2026. By November 6, 2026, Bitcoin had undergone a 129-day recovery and had risen approximately 29% from its bottom. Meanwhile, the 2022-2023 cycle, with its bottom identified on November 21, 2022, recorded a rise of approximately 78% after the same 129 days.

Thus, the current cycle's increase is only equivalent to about 37% of the recovery performance of the 2022-2023 cycle at the same time. The 48-percentage-point gap indicates that the upward momentum after bottoming out in 2026 has not reached the same intensity as the previous recovery phase.

Notably, the price trajectory in 2026 briefly approached or slightly surpassed the 2022–2023 recovery line between days 50 and 110. However, from around day 115 onwards, Bitcoin's trajectory in 2026 weakened significantly and began to lag behind.

This divergence suggests that the initial recovery momentum has not been sustained. Although prices have risen significantly from the June 2026 lows, the rate of value expansion remains much slower than in the previous cycle. In terms of momentum, the current market is exhibiting a more cautious recovery, with a less robust ability to absorb selling pressure and sustain an uptrend compared to the 2022-2023 period.

Data on inflows into US Bitcoin Spot ETFs shows periods of significant capital inflows, but this trend has not been sustained. The highest inflow was recorded on September 21, 2026, reaching approximately $999 million, indicating a strong rebound in demand for Bitcoin through ETFs during September. However, this surge did not establish a stable accumulation trend in the following weeks.

It's important to note that ETF capital flows are highly volatile from session to session. A large outflow of capital doesn't necessarily mean all institutional investors are simultaneously divesting, nor does a strong inflow of capital confirm a long-term accumulation trend. However, when negative capital flows occur in a less active trading environment, the overall signal leans towards a decrease in demand for new capital allocation.

Trading volume is a crucial factor in determining the actual level of market participation. The chart shows that ETF trading activity reached very large volumes in late 2025 and early 2026, with some sessions experiencing spikes exceeding $10 billion per day. The peak on the chart occurred around February 2026, when trading volume approached or exceeded $13 billion per day.

The market not only lacks expansion in trading volume but also experiences significant capital outflows, reducing the likelihood of forming stable buying pressure during price rallies. With Bitcoin trading below the $80,000-$85,000 range established during the recovery phase, the weakening of ETF inflows continues to negatively impact short-term price prospects.

Our assessment and conclusions

Recent Bitcoin market movements suggest that corrective pressure has significantly contributed to releasing speculative positions and unrealized profits formed during the September rally. While most short-term investors held profitable positions at previous highs, the structure has now clearly shifted: the proportion of Bitcoin held by Short-Term Holders (STH) currently holding profitable positions is only about 38%, according to the HCCVenture chart.

This pressure is not limited to the Bitcoin market but has spread to the altcoin asset class. The percentage of the Top 100 Altcoins trading above their 200-day moving average has fallen from a peak of approximately 88% in early October 2026 to 66% at the end of the chart. This indicates that altcoin market breadth has weakened significantly after a period of speculation focused on assets related to Robinhood Chain and meme coins. Although the 66% percentage is still above the 50% threshold, the decline from the peak suggests that the previous upward momentum is no longer being sustained broadly. Therefore, the altcoin market is currently still facing correction pressure and has not yet formed a consensus recovery signal.

Notably, the Binance hack, marked as October 29th on charts comparing Bitcoin's performance to the S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, and gold, did not generate a corresponding downward surge commensurate with the event's severity. This suggests a certain improvement in the market's ability to absorb negative news. However, the relatively stable price reaction to a single event cannot replace evidence of a recovery in capital flows. With ETFs still experiencing outflows and ETF trading liquidity remaining low, the growth momentum from new investment demand remains a missing element.

In the short term, the base scenario is that Bitcoin continues to test the $73,000-$76,000 range and forms a consolidation phase around this area. Maintaining above this support zone would be a positive sign, indicating that demand remains strong enough to absorb selling pressure after a short-term consolidation phase. A recovery back to the $84,000-$85,000 range would then be crucial to confirming an improvement in the price structure. However, simply holding support is not enough to confirm a new uptrend if ETF inflows and market breadth do not recover.

Disclaimer

This report was prepared by HCCVenture Research with the aim of providing information, research, and market analysis. The entire content of the report is based on publicly available data, on-chain data, market data, venture capital (Venture Capital) data, macroeconomic data, and HCCVenture's internal research methodologies at the time of publication. Data sources are compiled from numerous reputable research platforms and organizations, including but not limited to Glassnode, CoinGecko, TradingView, Dune Analytics, CoinGlass, CryptoRank, RootData, PitchBook, DefiLlama, CryptoQuant, Messari, Token Terminal, Artemis, CoinMarketCap , public blockchain data, reports from financial institutions, investment funds, blockchain companies, and other publicly available information sources. HCCVenture strives to select reliable data sources and applies a verification and cross-checking process throughout its research. However, HCCVenture does not guarantee the completeness, accuracy, timeliness, or error-free nature of all data due to differences in statistical methods, data collection scope, update times, or adjustments from data providers.

All opinions, assessments, valuation models, cyclical analysis, on-chain data, capital flow analysis, Venture Capital activity, ETFs, Digital Asset Treasury Companies (DATs), technical indicators, macroeconomic indicators, and scenarios presented in this report reflect only the research views of HCCVenture Research at the time of publication, based on available assumptions and data. These contents are not investment advice, financial advice, legal advice, accounting advice, tax advice, brokerage advice, portfolio management advice, or recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any digital asset, security, financial product, investment fund, blockchain protocol, or business. The digital asset and blockchain markets are highly volatile and are influenced by global liquidity, monetary policy, regulatory regulations, macroeconomic conditions, and many other unpredictable factors. Therefore, the trends, patterns, correlations, or historical cycles mentioned in this report are not guaranteed to repeat in the future and should not be considered reliable predictions of market developments. Readers should conduct their own independent research ( DYOR – Do Your Own Research ) and consult with qualified financial, legal, tax, or investment professionals before making any decisions. Any investment decisions or actions arising from the use of information in this report are the sole responsibility of the reader.

HCCVenture, its affiliates, research team, personnel, or related parties may own or will own digital assets, invest in blockchain projects, investment funds, technology companies, or maintain commercial, research, media, consulting, or collaborative relationships with the organizations, protocols, businesses, or platforms mentioned in this report. These relationships may create actual or potential conflicts of interest, although HCCVenture always applies internal research standards to maintain objectivity and independence in its analysis. Nothing in this report is construed as an offering, brokerage, promotion, fundraising, or provision of investment services as regulated by any country or territory. The entire content of this report is protected under intellectual property and copyright law. It is strictly prohibited to copy, modify, reproduce, distribute, or use all or part of this report for commercial purposes in any form without the written consent of HCCVenture. Accessing, using, or quoting this report signifies that the reader has understood, accepted, and agreed to the entire content of this disclaimer.

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