On-chain analysis week 37/2026: Valuation is returning to Bitcoin

Analyst Research Team

Group On-chain HCCVenture

Market Summary

For 27 consecutive days up to September 14th, Realized Cap increased, reflecting a continuous influx of new capital into the Bitcoin ecosystem. However, this upward trend ended on September 15th, when Realized Cap recorded its first negative capital inflow in 28 days; data for September 16th was not yet complete at the time of reporting but was also maintaining a negative state. This is a notable change as it occurred shortly after Bitcoin lost its TMM, indicating that the previous price increase was no longer supported by a corresponding increase in real market capitalization.

US Bitcoin Spot ETFs recorded approximately $334 million in net outflows between September 8th and 14th , after attracting nearly $1 billion in the early days of September . Subsequently, outflow pressure intensified: September 15th saw approximately $450.4 million in net outflows, the largest since the end of June; September 16th saw a further $296 million in net outflows.

More importantly, order book data shows that buy liquidity below the current price is quite thin. Nearly two-thirds of bids are within the 20% range below the current price, concentrated in the 1–10% range , while the depth of the 10–20% support zone has significantly decreased compared to 2025. The most recent buy orders pulled the price down to around $68,000 , after which the market thinned further down to around $61,000 .

While the underlying liquidity is thin, the supply structure above is relatively clear. Corporate Treasury Cost Basis is around $80,500 , approximately 6% higher than the current price . In the last three months, listed companies have only purchased around 5,900 BTC , significantly lower than the 89,000 BTC purchased in July 2025 alone .

The monetary environment has also shifted toward a tighter stance. On September 16, 2026, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points , bringing the Fed Funds range to 3.75–4.00% , the first increase since 2023. Simultaneously, policy forecasts indicate that most Fed officials remain open to another increase in 2026. Meanwhile, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds has risen to around 5.05% , its highest level since 2007, according to market data released this week. As yields on risk-free assets rise while new capital inflows into Bitcoin decline, conditions for expanding multiple pricing of risk assets become more challenging.

Analyzing on-chain metrics

The Bitcoin ATH Overview of Price Peaks and Drawdowns reveals a key characteristic of the current market structure: although the price has corrected significantly from its historical peak, it has not yet repeated the extreme declines often seen in end-of-cycle top-down zones .

Therefore, the current drawdown of around 38-40% needs to be placed within a completely different valuation structure compared to the historical bottom. Bitcoin is no longer at the bottom of the cycle , but it hasn't returned to its all-time high either. In other words, the market is in the intermediate zone of the cycle, where the price has undergone a significant revaluation but has not yet formed a discount equivalent to previous capitulation phases.

In the short and medium term, the $62,000-$65,000 range continues to be structurally significant as it is near the accumulation zone and bottom of the most recent correction phase. If the price remains above this zone, the current structure is still considered a re-accumulation process after a large drawdown rather than a transition to a new capitulation phase. Conversely, losing the $62,000-$65,000 range would significantly alter the current valuation structure, as Bitcoin would then move closer to the 2026 bottom and the drawdown would widen considerably compared to the current state.

The Bitcoin Advanced Net UTXO Supply Ratio is showing noteworthy signals as Bitcoin has moved past its strong growth phase and is currently correcting to the $76-$77 thousand range. On the long-term chart, this indicator has a fairly clear cyclical characteristic: after reaching highs above $0.8 to $0.95 , the ratio often declines sharply to very low levels, while the price of Bitcoin continues to maintain or extend its upward trend and form new historical peaks.

The key takeaway from the current data is that the Net UTXO Supply Ratio has moved away from the peak of the cycle , similar to previous phases when the supply structure began to shift to a new state. Currently, the index has fallen sharply from the high above 0.8 to near the low of the cycle, approximately 0.1-0.2 on the chart. This represents a significant structural shift. Historically, the index's lows have typically been around 0.05-0.15 , much lower than the peak above 0.8.

Therefore, purely from a cyclical perspective, the current level is much closer to the index's historical lows than to its peaks . This is a fundamental difference from the early stages of bull cycles, when the Net UTXO Supply Ratio remained high and had not yet undergone restructuring. In relation to price, the current signal is positive for the supply structure in the medium and long term , but it should not be simply interpreted that a drop in the index means Bitcoin will immediately rise in price.

With Bitcoin currently down approximately 39% from its all-time high of $124,400 , but the Net UTXO Supply Ratio near its historical low, the current valuation structure differs significantly from the distribution phase at the peak of the cycle. This indicator now leans towards a post-correction supply restructuring rather than a distribution peak. If the $62,000-$65,000 range continues to hold and the price can reclaim the $80,000-$86,000 supply zones, the decline in the Net UTXO Supply Ratio will become a crucial component reinforcing the argument that Bitcoin is completing a revaluation phase rather than entering a new long-term downtrend.

The Network Activity Index is one of the important indicators for assessing the actual usage intensity of the Bitcoin blockchain , rather than just observing price fluctuations. The index aggregates changes in many components of network activity, including the number of active addresses, the number of transactions, the average number of transactions per block, the total number of UTXOs, and the amount of data recorded per block.

The data on the chart shows that Bitcoin network activity has undergone a significant decline since its peak in 2024, before forming a recovery in 2026. The most noteworthy point now is not the index's recovery, but the shift in the correlation between the Network Activity Index and the 365-day moving average . After a prolonged period of weakness, the index has crossed back above the long-term trendline, indicating that on-chain activity is entering a new expansion phase.

It's worth noting that the recent decline wasn't simply a short-term correction. After reaching highs in 2024, the index continued to weaken throughout 2025 and early 2026, remaining below the 365-day moving average. CryptoQuant recorded a drop of approximately 15% from November, falling to 3,760 points, its lowest level since February 2024.

Although the recovery of the Network Activity Index is a clear quantitative sign of improvement, the structure of this activity has an important characteristic: the increase in the number of transactions does not necessarily equate to a corresponding increase in economic demand for Bitcoin .

In other words, the indicator is confirming that the Bitcoin blockchain is being used more actively than it was at its lows in 2025 and early 2026, but a large portion of that activity comes from small-value transactions. Therefore, the current signal is more consistent with the concept of “network utilization recovery” rather than “capital demand expansion” .

The HCCVenture chart reveals a notable characteristic of the current cycle: “ Although Bitcoin is trading at historically high prices, the 30-day CDD activity is not currently maintaining the extreme levels seen in previous major distribution phases .” Following strong surges in 2024-2025, the CDD has significantly declined and now mostly fluctuates below 500 million coin-days, while historical peaks of the index once far exceeded 1 billion coin-days.

Throughout the data series, the highest CDD levels occur when large-scale, aged supply is activated on a large scale. In 2017-2018, 2021, and especially the 2024-2025 period, the chart records several spikes in CDD exceeding 500 million coins-days, and at times surpassing 1 billion coin-days. These are periods when a large amount of BTC that had been dormant for a long time begins to move on a massive scale.

Conversely, the current state suggests that the 30-day CDD has returned to significantly lower levels. The chart value hovers around 300-500 million coin-days , noticeably lower than the 1 billion coin-days threshold used as a high-activity zone on the chart. Compared to the extreme peaks of 2024-2025, the current level represents only a fraction of the intensity of supply movement previously recorded.

From a valuation perspective, this data suggests that the potential supply pressure from LTH is not currently the main factor driving the market . Distribution risk will only truly change if the 30-day CDD begins to rise steadily and surpasses the 500 million to 1 billion coin-days ranges , especially when the increase is accompanied by price weakness. Conversely, if the CDD continues to remain below historical extremes while long-term supply continues to hold, the supply structure will remain relatively constrained.

Bitcoin Percent Supply in Profit is showing that 65.3% of the total Bitcoin supply is in a profitable state , with approximately 35% of the supply being held at a cost higher than the current market price . This indicates a significant market recovery from previous downturns, but the profitability level of the supply has not yet reached the levels commonly seen at the end of bull cycles.

However, the 65.3% level is still significantly lower than the 75% range , which is crucial in confirming the shift from a weak market to a clearly dominant profit-taking state. Furthermore, the later stages of strong bull cycles often see a profit-taking supply ratio above 90% , when a large portion of the market is holding BTC below market price. Therefore, the current structure does not yet reflect an extreme overheated pricing state. Conversely, the market still has a large amount of unprofitable supply, creating a significant divergence between those who accumulated at low prices and the group of investors who bought at higher price levels.

However, it's important to note that the revaluation process hasn't yet reached a state of high-yield consensus . Approximately 35% of the supply remains below cost, creating a significant potential supply zone if the market continues to weaken. This is also why the 60% level on the chart is crucial. If the percentage remains above 60%, the current structure still indicates that the majority of supply is overvalued; conversely, a drop below 60% and a move toward the 50% zone would mark a significant decline in valuation quality and bring the market closer to a deep re-accumulation phase.

Bitcoin Total Whale Holdings currently holds approximately 2.96-2.97 million BTC , while the 30-day SMA has returned to an upward trend and is hovering around 2.95 million BTC . Notably, this represents a significant recovery from the bottom of around 2.84 million BTC formed in the latter half of 2025 and early 2026. However, compared to the peak of approximately 3.08-3.10 million BTC recorded during the strong accumulation phase in mid-2026, the current holding size is still lower by about 130,000-140,000 BTC , equivalent to approximately 4% .

From approximately 2.84 million BTC, whale holdings have formed a recovery chain extending into 2026. While Bitcoin once plummeted to the $60,000-$65,000 range , the amount of BTC controlled by whales did not continue to decline correspondingly but began to increase again.

In terms of valuation, this creates a structure where Bitcoin's price has corrected deeper than the decline in whale holdings , suggesting that large supply is being absorbed while the market has yet to return to the cycle's highest valuation. Therefore, the 2.84 million BTC region is a crucial structural point on the bottom, while the 3.0-3.10 million BTC region is a confirmation point on the top . Maintaining above 2.84 million BTC means the accumulation structure from the bottom is still intact; while a recovery back to the 3.08-3.10 million BTC region would confirm that whale-controlled supply has returned to the cycle's highest point.

Bitcoin's True Market Mean Price and AVIV Ratio are indicating a particularly important valuation state for the current market structure. Currently, the AVIV Ratio is around 1.00 , while the True Market Mean Price is determined to be around $76,700 .

The most notable aspect of the current cycle is that AVIV has recovered significantly from its historically extreme lows in Bitcoin. During major downturns, AVIV fell to around 0.5-0.6 , particularly around the lows of 2015, 2019, and 2022. At that time, market prices were significantly lower than the True Market Mean, reflecting widespread actual investor losses and the market trading below its aggregate economic cost.

The fact that Bitcoin is currently only a very small fraction of its true market mean suggests that much of the unrealized profit for active investors has been significantly compressed compared to previous periods of sharp price increases. This is a transitional state; the market is no longer undervalued, but the premium to the cost basis is not yet large enough to form an overvalued state.

The market has moved away from the deep discount zones of historical lows, but has not yet reached the valuation premiums seen during periods of rapid growth. The focus of valuation in the next phase therefore lies in Bitcoin's ability to maintain and re-expand the gap above the True Market Mean , rather than simply reaching a new nominal price. If the cost basis of $76,700 continues to hold, the valuation structure will remain in a premium accumulation direction; if this zone is sustainably lost, the AVIV will move below 1, confirming the weakening of the current valuation structure.

The BTC Balance Old Whales vs. New Whales index assesses changes in the ownership structure of Bitcoin whales based on the age of their BTC holdings. Unlike indices that only measure the number of large wallets, this index focuses on the actual size of BTC distributed between long-standing whales and newly formed whales .

Old Whales currently hold approximately 2.9-3.0 million BTC , while New Whales have expanded to around 1.4-1.5 million BTC . The total amount of BTC held by both groups is approximately 4.4-4.5 million BTC . Meanwhile, New Whales were almost negligible in the early years of Bitcoin, beginning to expand significantly from 2024 and accelerating sharply in 2025–2026. This suggests that the Bitcoin ownership structure is undergoing a shift from a market primarily controlled by long-term capital to one in which new capital, on a whale-scale basis, is increasingly entering the market .

In the entire data series on the chart, the increase in New Whales during the 2024–2026 period is the most notable change. Compared to a near-zero base in the early years, the amount of BTC in this group has now increased to approximately 1.4–1.5 million BTC , reaching the highest level in the chart's observation history. This is not simply an increase in the number of large entities but reflects a significant amount of capital that has been reallocated to large-scale holding entities in recent times.

This difference in growth rate suggests that the shift in supply is currently primarily driven by New Whales , while Old Whales remain relatively stable. Cyclically, this is characteristic of a market where the amount of new capital has become large enough to form a new class of large-scale investors, rather than simply shifting between small retail investors.

Power Law Regression on charts is used to determine the long-term price trend of Bitcoin through the logarithmic relationship between the network's lifespan and the BTC price. Unlike short-term indicators, this model does not aim to pinpoint the exact peaks or troughs of each cycle, but focuses on establishing long-term price ranges including bull market zones, central regression lines, and bear market zones.

Historically, Bitcoin is currently significantly lower than the peak valuation levels seen in previous cycles. In the 2013-2014, 2017, and 2021 cycles, periods where the price approached the upper boundary of the pattern were often accompanied by significantly higher valuations than the central trendline. Conversely, periods of deep price declines typically pushed BTC towards bear-market regression before forming a new bull cycle.

If using Power Law Regression alone as a valuation basis, Bitcoin's long-term trend remains upward , as both the central regression line and the two valuation margins continue to shift upwards over time. This is the fundamental difference between a long-term trend-based valuation model and short-term cyclical valuation models: a 30-40% correction does not immediately alter a multi-year growth trajectory if the price remains within the Power Law structure.

Therefore, the current price range around $76,000-$77,000 should be seen as a reassessment phase after the peak , rather than a confirmation that the long-term uptrend has ended. However, the model also does not provide a basis for determining that the market will immediately return to its ATH. What the model confirms more clearly is that there is still significant long-term upside potential , while the market is not yet in the peak valuation area of ​​the Power Law line.

The STH Realized Price line has currently shifted from a declining to an upward trend. This is a significant development because the STH cost basis doesn't simply reflect the current Bitcoin price, but rather the price at which new supply has been absorbed in recent months. As this line rises, it can be interpreted that the cost basis for new capital inflows is increasing.

Compared to the lows formed in early 2026, the cost basis of STH has now increased significantly and reached the $71,000-$72,000 range . Meanwhile, BTC is maintaining around $76,000-$77,000 . The gap between market price and cost basis is therefore now only a single-digit percentage, significantly lower than the periods when STH-MVRV reached highs in the previous bull cycle.

Bitcoin has recovered from its undervalued state due to new capital inflows, but has not yet formed a sufficiently large unrealized profit to create an overheated state for the STH group . The MVRV is currently around 1.07, significantly lower than the 1.5–2.0 ranges seen during strong market rallies. Therefore, considering only this indicator, the market is currently in a state of positive profit but with low profit margins .

Our assessment and conclusions

The structure of long-term holders is also crucial to valuation. The 30-day CDD indicator on the chart remains below the 500 million level , and significantly lower than the peaks of activity above 1 billion that occurred during major distribution phases. This suggests that the amount of BTC moved by long-term holders has not yet reached a sufficient level to confirm a long-term distribution wave on a cyclical scale. Simultaneously, the fact that Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Realized Price is currently around $49,357 , while the market price is around $76,000, indicates that the group of long-term holders still has a relatively large amount of unrealized profit.

The Network Activity Index on the chart has recovered to approximately 4,000 points , and is also above the 365-day moving average. This is a cyclical change because Network Activity reflects not only price but also the level of usage and economic activity of the network. Compared to previous activity lows, when the index fell sharply below the long-term average and moved sideways for an extended period, the current state shows that network activity is recovering along with price. If this trend continues, Bitcoin's valuation will have more basis from on-chain activity growth rather than just relying on market valuation expansion.

The whale structure also supports this assessment. The total amount of BTC held by whales on the chart has increased significantly from around 2.8-2.9 million BTC in previous periods to over 3 million BTC , while the holdings of "old whales" remain high. Notably, the recent strong growth comes from "new whales," reflecting an increase in large new capital inflows or position restructuring. September market data also shows significant accumulation activity by large addresses.

Currently, the focus of the next phase is not on how much Bitcoin has risen from its bottom, but on the potential widening of the gap between the market price and the STH Realized Price and the overall market Realized Price . If the price continues to remain above the $71,000-$72,000 range, while MVRV increases but remains below historical extremes, Supply in Profit gradually expands from 65.3% without rapidly approaching 90%, and network activity continues to increase, on-chain data will confirm that the upward revaluation process is ongoing. In the current structure, $53,000 is the fundamental cost basis for the entire market, the $71,000-$72,000 range is the decisive cost basis for short-term supply, and the current $76,000 range only reflects a moderate premium compared to these cost basis levels.

Disclaimer

This report was prepared by HCCVenture Research with the aim of providing information, research, and market analysis. The entire content of the report is based on publicly available data, on-chain data, market data, venture capital (Venture Capital) data, macroeconomic data, and HCCVenture's internal research methodologies at the time of publication. Data sources are compiled from numerous reputable research platforms and organizations, including but not limited to Glassnode, CoinGecko, TradingView, Dune Analytics, CoinGlass, CryptoRank, RootData, PitchBook, DefiLlama, CryptoQuant, Messari, Token Terminal, Artemis, CoinMarketCap , public blockchain data, reports from financial institutions, investment funds, blockchain companies, and other publicly available information sources. HCCVenture strives to select reliable data sources and applies a verification and cross-checking process throughout its research. However, HCCVenture does not guarantee the completeness, accuracy, timeliness, or error-free nature of all data due to differences in statistical methods, data collection scope, update times, or adjustments from data providers.

All opinions, assessments, valuation models, cyclical analysis, on-chain data, capital flow analysis, Venture Capital activity, ETFs, Digital Asset Treasury Companies (DATs), technical indicators, macroeconomic indicators, and scenarios presented in this report reflect only the research views of HCCVenture Research at the time of publication, based on available assumptions and data. These contents are not investment advice, financial advice, legal advice, accounting advice, tax advice, brokerage advice, portfolio management advice, or recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any digital asset, security, financial product, investment fund, blockchain protocol, or business. The digital asset and blockchain markets are highly volatile and are influenced by global liquidity, monetary policy, regulatory regulations, macroeconomic conditions, and many other unpredictable factors. Therefore, the trends, patterns, correlations, or historical cycles mentioned in this report are not guaranteed to repeat in the future and should not be considered reliable predictions of market developments. Readers should conduct their own independent research ( DYOR – Do Your Own Research ) and consult with qualified financial, legal, tax, or investment professionals before making any decisions. Any investment decisions or actions arising from the use of information in this report are the sole responsibility of the reader.

HCCVenture, its affiliates, research team, personnel, or related parties may own or will own digital assets, invest in blockchain projects, investment funds, technology companies, or maintain commercial, research, media, consulting, or collaborative relationships with the organizations, protocols, businesses, or platforms mentioned in this report. These relationships may create actual or potential conflicts of interest, although HCCVenture always applies internal research standards to maintain objectivity and independence in its analysis. Nothing in this report is construed as an offering, brokerage, promotion, fundraising, or provision of investment services as regulated by any country or territory. The entire content of this report is protected under intellectual property and copyright law. It is strictly prohibited to copy, modify, reproduce, distribute, or use all or part of this report for commercial purposes in any form without the written consent of HCCVenture. Accessing, using, or quoting this report signifies that the reader has understood, accepted, and agreed to the entire content of this disclaimer.

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