On-chain analysis week 35/2025: What are the chances for Bitcoin to grow again?

Market Summary

In the “risk-off” environment following Powell’s speech, Bitcoin’s price fell from around $116,000 to around $108,000. On August 29 and 30 alone, the price fell to around $113,000 and then $108,000. In the busiest 24 hours of trading, the derivatives market saw around $0.9–$1.0 billion worth of positions wiped out.

Total weekly net inflows into the US BTC ETF group remained at +$441 million. However, on Friday, August 29, there was a net outflow of about $126.7 million, indicating that short-term institutional demand slowed over the weekend.

Open interest (OI) in BTC futures remains at around $67 billion, a record high. After last week's correction, OI has narrowed (leverage has decreased), but the overall level remains high, making the market more sensitive to changes.

Net Transfer Volume (to and from exchanges) After a series of strong net deposits during the previous breakouts, August has turned into a mild net withdrawal. The immediate selling pressure from the available supply seems to have eased.

The Value to Destroy Day (VDD) ratio remains low, far from the extreme red bars of early 2021 and April 2024. This shows that old money is not driving the distribution, and the profit-taking activities of the LTH group have cooled down.

The RHODL ratio is higher than the average over the past two years but lower than the extreme euphoria of previous cycles. This is typical of a late but not yet “explosive” phase.

On-chain metrics analysis

From a low of $75,000 in March to a high of $124,000 in late July, BTC increased by 65% ​​in just five months. This is a very strong acceleration, similar to what has happened in the past during bull runs. BTC reached a high of $124,000, but then fell to $110,000, about 11% lower than the high. This correction is still within the range of “healthy corrections” that occur during strong bull cycles (10% to 20%).

There were numerous long-bodied candles from May to July, indicating a lot of buying pressure, especially when BTC broke above the $100,000 mark, which was an important psychological level and later became strong support.

During the 2020–2021 cycle, BTC price increased from $10,000 to $64,000 (6.4x increase), but then fell 15–20% multiple times before peaking. The current phase ($75,000 → $124,000, 1.65x increase) shows that BTC still has room to grow, especially as institutional capital and spot ETFs remain stable. The $110,000 price is still 1.46x higher than the low of $75,000 in the same cycle, indicating that the uptrend is still strong.

Net Transfer Volume from/to Exchanges represents the net amount of Bitcoin (BTC) transferred into or out of exchanges. It is one of the important indicators of investor behavior:

• High inflow → increasing selling pressure.

• High outflow → accumulation signal, reducing selling pressure.

From Q1 to Q2 2025, both inflows and outflows were large. Specifically, in June 2025, net inflows reached over 5,000 BTC/day, at the same time the price peaked at $120,000 before falling sharply. The current trend is returning to a state of small inflows (+1,000 to +2,000 BTC per day), and the BTC price is correcting to around $110,000 after reaching a local peak of $123,000.

The current net withdrawal volume is much lower than the 2023 bottom, when BTC was valued below $30,000. This suggests that cumulative buying pressure is weakening. On the other hand, the increased inflows suggest that investors are starting to take profits after a long bull run from late 2024 to mid-2025.

During the time below $70,000, large institutions and Bitcoin spot ETFs bought a lot of Bitcoin. Now, they are starting to sell. As BTC hits an all-time high of over $120,000, retail investors are selling more to take profits.

After a period of rapid growth, BTC is now in a correction phase, which is evident in the Net Transfer Volume shifting to inflows. In the short term, BTC prices will continue to decline as deposits to exchanges continue to increase. However, it is important to emphasize that the long-term structure is still growing, despite the correction. The amount of BTC leaving exchanges in the 2024–2025 cycle is still at an all-time high, which reduces the amount of available money.

The Value Days Destroyed Multiple (VDD Multiple) is an important on-chain metric that determines how long-term investors are spending their coins. It takes into account the amount of Bitcoin that has been transferred and the age of the coin (number of days unspent). When the VDD Multiple is high, it means that long-term investors are taking profits, which often happens when the market is at a peak.

The VDD ratio rose above 4.0 in late 2020 and early 2021, which means people took a lot of profits and then the market corrected. The index peaked locally again in late 2023, which happened when Bitcoin reached its high price zone.

The VDD Multiple is currently between 1.5 and 2.0 (September 2025), which is average and much lower than previous bubble phases. This shows that long-term holders are still putting a lot of selling pressure on the market.

The market typically reaches a cyclical peak when the VDD Ratio crosses the 3.5–4.0 range in previous cycles (2013, 2017, 2021). On the other hand, lows of 0.5–0.75 typically occur at cyclical bottoms (e.g., 2015, 2019, and late 2022).

Currently, the fact that the VDD Ratio is still in the neutral zone shows that long-term holders are still pouring money into the market and there are no signs of a major sell-off. This shows that the market is likely still in a long-term growth phase and not a bubble.

The Realized Profit and Loss (PnL) metric measures the actual profits and losses realized on the Bitcoin network when investors sell BTC. It is an important tool to gauge market sentiment , profit-taking levels, and selling pressure from short-term and long-term investors. When realized profits surge, the market is often at risk of a sell-off.

The peak of Realized Profit was recorded at over 10 billion USD/day during the strong bull market period in 2021 and early 2024. This is a signal showing that speculative cash flow and profit-taking demand increased dramatically when BTC reached a historical peak.

Meanwhile, Realized Loss at times dropped to -5 to -6 billion USD/day (especially during the price declines in mid-2022 and the first half of 2023). This reflects large selling pressure to cut losses, mainly from investors who bought at previous high prices.

In the 2024–2025 period, realized profits will remain stable at 2–5 billion USD/day , lower than the previous bull run period but still higher than the 2022 base level. This shows that cash flow is still steadily taking profits but has not yet reached an extreme bubble state .

Compared to the 2021 cycle , the current profit level has not yet surpassed the historical peak , proving that BTC is in a sustainable growth phase , not yet at the peak of a comprehensive euphoric cycle. The current actual profit flow is concentrated in the group of long-term holders (long-term investors), which strengthens the stability of capital flow and reduces the risk of sudden sell-offs.

From mid-2023 to present, Long-term Holders (LTH) have tended to reduce supply sharply during Bitcoin price breakout periods, typically late 2023 - early 2024. However, in the second half of 2024 and into 2025, the net selling level has cooled down significantly, showing that distribution pressure is gradually decreasing.

In contrast, the supply of Short-term Holders (STH) increased sharply during periods when Bitcoin reached local peaks (March 2021, November 2021, early 2024). Currently, STH is holding a larger supply, which means that the market is prone to short-term price fluctuations due to quick profit-taking psychology.

The amount of BTC on the exchange in the last 90 days has been on a downward trend , reflecting increased cold wallet withdrawal activity. This is a positive signal, showing a preference for long-term accumulation and confidence in the price trend.

In the 2020–2021 cycle, the shift from LTH to STH (strong selling supply) always coincided with price boom phases. After a large amount of BTC was absorbed by STH, the market entered deep correction phases.

Currently (Q3/2025), although LTH has distribution behavior, the level is significantly lower than the 2021 cycle. This reflects that the selling pressure is no longer overwhelming, while new capital flows continue to absorb this supply.

The Realized HODL Ratio ( RDO) was developed to measure the asset allocation between short-term and long-term investors. When the RHODL Ratio increases sharply and enters extreme territory, this is often associated with a market top distribution phase , when long-term investors realize profits and new capital from short-term investors enters the market.

The RHODL Ratio is at a level that is significantly higher than the 2023–2024 period, indicating a sharp increase in capital inflows from short-term holders, while long-term holders are showing signs of gradually distributing their supply. Compared to the 2017 and 2021 periods, the RHODL is currently at a level roughly equivalent to previous distribution cycles, but has not reached the 2021 peak (when Bitcoin approached $69,000).

The current 2025 cycle, the RHODL Ratio shows a strong growth structure, similar to the bull run market stages. New capital entering the market is absorbing the supply from long-term holders. However, the current RHODL level still has room to increase before reaching the absolute extreme. This shows that the market is in the early-middle phase of the distribution phase , not the final peak of the cycle.

The RHODL Ratio confirms that the Bitcoin market is in a typical wealth distribution cycle , with assets shifting from long-time investors to new investors. Historically, RHODL still has room to grow before reaching its extreme – meaning BTC still has the potential to set a new higher high in the 2025–2026 cycle .

Evaluation and Conclusion

Bitcoin is currently operating in a late phase of its bull cycle , where on-chain structure suggests that the majority of supply has been yielded, institutional flows through ETFs remain positive but lack momentum, and derivatives leverage remains high. This is the phase where the market typically moves from euphoria to caution , as new demand must be strong enough to absorb the latent supply from long-term investors.

• Old supply is no longer dumping heavily , which removes extreme selling pressure.

• Long-term holders (LTH) are returning to accumulate, reflecting sustainable confidence.

• Short-term holders (STH) have reduced risk, circulating supply on the floor has decreased.

• However, the percentage of profitable supply above 90% shows that profit-taking risk is still potential, especially if the price encounters strong resistance around 120k.

• High derivatives leverage (OI) makes the market susceptible to “short-term shocks” when adverse news appears.

Bitcoin still has room for growth in the medium and long term, but the short term is not a breakout phase . The market is in a “dynamic equilibrium”: the circulating supply is decreasing, but the new demand is not strong enough to trigger the next wave of growth.

According to an objective assessment from Founder-Minh Huy: "this is the "smart consolidation" phase : when Bitcoin is preparing the foundation for the next growth phase, but does not have enough catalysts to explode immediately".

Disclaimer: The information presented in this article is the author's personal opinion on the cryptocurrency field. It is not intended to be financial or investment advice. Any investment decision should be based on careful consideration of your personal portfolio and risk tolerance. The views expressed in the article do not represent the official position of the platform. We recommend that readers conduct their own research and consult with a professional before making any investment decisions.

API & Data : Glassnode

Compiled and analyzed by HCCVenture

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