On-chain analysis week 21 / 2025: Bitcoin reaches new ATH near $112,000

Market Summary

Bitcoin has set a local top of $107,000 , approaching the historical peak of $109,000 recorded in December 2024. This development has triggered a large capital inflow into the market , pushing the Realized Cap index above $900 billion – an unprecedented milestone in the history of this digital asset.

On-chain metrics show that Short-Term Holders (investors holding for <155 days) are seeing the highest realized returns since the beginning of the cycle :

• Peak realized profit : 747 million USD/day

• Cumulative profit in the last 30 days : 11.4 billion USD

This surge reflects the redistribution of assets when prices reach high levels. However, it is worth noting that the selling pressure has not yet created a strong correction , indicating that the buying demand from new money flows is large enough to absorb the short-term profit-taking supply.

UTXOs reflect a healthy, active Bitcoin market with substantial trading activity. The bull run is still ongoing, but technical corrections due to short-term profit-taking pressure should be watched.

Bitcoin is entering a new era of finance, where on-chain strength is no longer a speculative signal, but an indicator of long-term market confidence.

On-chain metrics analysis

After Bitcoin hit a new all-time high at $111,980 , the market witnessed a short-term correction.

However, the rapid and strong price recovery in recent weeks has triggered many positive signals from on-chain indicators, especially regarding the proportion of supply in profit.

Over the past 30 days , Short-Term Holders (STH) have seen a +71% increase in the proportion of supply in profit. This is the second largest increase in the history of this index for STH, after the extremely strong recovery after the COVID-19 event in 2020.

In fact, over 70% of BTC in the STH group is currently in profit , compared to only about 20-25% during the bottom of the last correction (April 2025).

The rapid recovery of profits in the STH group shows a significant change in investor sentiment . Previously, this group was often under pressure to cut losses during short-term corrections. When the profit rate increases sharply, the STH group tends to:

• Hold BTC longer in expectation of further price increase.

• Take short-term profits , especially if the market shows signs of weakness.

The data also shows a clear divergence between STH and the Long-Term Holders (LTH) group, with the LTH group continuing to hold its position without major fluctuations in distribution.

Realized Cap approaches $1 trillion mark - an extremely important milestone, demonstrating the sustainable and in-depth capital accumulation of investors in the network.

The timeline chart of Realized Cap milestones shows the movement of investment capital into Bitcoin through each cycle:

• February 2011 reached $1M

• May 2011 reached $10M

• February 2013 reached $100M

• November 2013 reached $1B (important milestone that took Bitcoin to new heights)

• May 2017 reached $10B

• Expected to reach $1T by the end of 2025 (Bitcoin's most important historical peak)

2011–2013: Realized Cap grew from $1M to $1B in just 2 years , thanks to the first boom when Bitcoin was a small asset, easily fueling exponential growth.

After hitting $100B in August 2019 , it has taken nearly 6 years for Bitcoin to surpass the $1T Realized Cap mark — the longest period between two logarithmic milestones .

Bitcoin's Realized Cap is now above $900 billion , just 10% away from the $1T mark , reflecting continued strong inflows into the network, despite short-term volatility.

• The amount of capital needed to raise the Realized Cap to $1 trillion today is extremely large , requiring long-term appeal and the confidence of major financial institutions .

Reaching the $1T Realized Cap milestone is not only symbolic, but also marks Bitcoin officially entering the group of assets with a scale equivalent to blue-chip stocks or physical gold circulating in the global investment market .

With Bitcoin hitting a new high at $111,980 , an important question is whether the market is entering overheated territory and at risk of a correction?

• The Sell-Side Risk Ratio of the Short-Term Holders (STH) group has increased sharply in the past month ➟ a part of short-term investors are realizing profits .

• However, the current SSR level is still significantly lower than historical peak cycles ➟ There has been no widespread or excessive sell-off .

• While Bitcoin price has increased by more than 40% in 30 days, SSR has only increased slightly compared to the price increase ➟ many investors are still holding instead of distributing massively .

STH Sell-Side Risk Ratio is increasing but not too high ➟ Short-term investors are reacting reasonably to the profit level, but there is no large-scale profit-taking signal yet.

LTH Sell-Side Risk Ratio remains low :

➟ Long-term holders remain steadfast, not attracted by the new ATH price

➟ positive market sentiment, no signs of peak distribution .

Low SSR = reduced price volatility → The market is entering a “new equilibrium” zone after a strong increase, which is a solid foundation for the next accumulation or growth phase .

In the past 30 days , STH's total realized profit has reached $11.4 billion USD , nearly 10 times higher than the same period last year (only $1.2 billion USD ).

The highest realized intraday profit value peaked at $747 million USD/day , a remarkable figure that clearly reflects the level of short-term investor reaction to the price increase .

The profit-taking momentum is mainly coming from investors who entered at the bottom in April (when Bitcoin price hit $76,000) and are now holding relatively large profits (~+20-35%).

The fact that profits are realized on a large scale is not necessarily a negative signal. On the contrary, it is a sign that the market is operating healthily , as investors take profits according to reasonable expectations.

STH Cost Basis ($93k) now becomes an important psychological and technical support level – if price holds above this level, market sentiment will continue to be strong.

Profit realization rate increased but has not reached the "peak" level of previous cycles (for example, cycle 2021, when STH profit peaked at >$1.2B/day), showing that there is still room for the upward trend to continue .

The number of UTXOs Created continues to fluctuate wildly, peaking near 1.6 million during strong price spikes , indicating new addresses or redistribution of assets between individual/institutional wallets.

UTXOs Spent increased sharply in late 2024 - early 2025 , reaching a recent peak of around 1.3 million , coinciding with the time when Bitcoin broke ATH and peaked at $111,980 .

An increase in the number of UTXOs Created ➟ strong asset distribution or accumulation activity , usually a sign of long-term investors (HODLers) or institutions creating new storage wallet addresses.

The recent surge in Spent UTXOs ➟ a wave of profit-taking and short-term distribution , especially from Short-Term Holders and funds/institutions after the strong price increase.

Compared to previous cycles, although the price has peaked, the number of UTXOs Created has not reached an absolute peak , which may indicate that investment cash flow is not completely "overheated" — a sign that the bull cycle may not be over yet.

The Mining Pulse metric represents the difference between the actual average time between two blocks (block interval) and the 10 minute target.

The Mining Pulse indicator (gray line) hovers around 0, indicating that the network is currently operating near balance – meaning the average mining time is maintaining close to 10 minutes/block.

From early 2024 to May 2025 , this index remained within a narrow range around 0, reflecting the stability of the network – even when Bitcoin just set a new ATH at $111,980 .

In previous cycles, when Mining Pulse was low (deep negative), this indicated that the network was processing faster than expected due to a strong increase in hash rate – a positive signal of computing power and confidence from miners.

Conversely, when the index spikes, it is often the result of a market shock or mining costs exceeding profits, causing many miners to withdraw from the market.

Evaluation and Conclusion

The most obvious consequence is the surge in new capital flows , reflected in the Realized Cap index – real capitalization – which has surpassed $900 billion for the first time in history.

The average price of the entire BTC supply has been raised , which also shows that market liquidity is reaching its highest depth ever .

Bitcoin is consolidating strength just below its historical high, while on-chain indicators like Realized Cap and STH behavior confirm a positive redistribution phase but no break of the uptrend .

Market sentiment is in a state of balance between reasonable profit taking and expectations of continued growth.

New capital flows continue to flow in, creating a solid foundation for the possibility of setting new highs in the coming months in the absence of negative macro shocks.

On the current trend, Bitcoin is likely to hit the $1T Realized Cap mark in the second half of 2025 , cementing its role as a global store of value alongside gold and government bonds.

The clear breakout above the $93k zone has re-established the confidence of short-term investors, creating momentum for a large-scale profit-taking wave – which is completely normal during the peak price period.

The realized profit stream over the past 30 days clearly reflects the shift from a defensive mentality to a proactive mentality to take advantage of market opportunities.

Bitcoin may have hit a new ATH, but according to behavioral indicators – investors have not yet fallen into a state of extreme euphoria. The market is maintaining a crucial balance, opening up a lot of room for the next phase of sustainable growth.

Once again we give our opinion on potential projects in the crypto market. This is not investment advice, consider your portfolio. Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not represent the platform in any way. This article is not intended to be a guide to making investment decisions.

API & Data : Glassnode

Compiled and analyzed by HCCVenture

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