Matthew Sigel of VanEck reaffirms his prediction that Bitcoin's price will reach $500,000 by 2029

Matthew Sigel, Director of Digital Asset Research at VanEck, appeared on CNBC this week to reaffirm the two price targets for Bitcoin he set at the beginning of 2026: a price of $100,000 next year.

8/24/20265 min read

The four-month time series reaffirms the forecast.

Sigel's appearance on CNBC in August was the latest in a series of public reaffirmations since he first stated his $100,000 price target in April 2026. At the time, with Bitcoin trading at around $68,510, about $16,600 lower than its price at the same time the previous year and nearly 50% lower than its all-time high of nearly $26,000 set in October 2025, Sigel told CNBC's Power Lunch program : "I think it's perfectly reasonable for Bitcoin to reach $100,000 again within the next year." He also described Bitcoin as "a completely viable asset, depending on when you start timing it"; This perspective acknowledges the importance of the entry point – the factor that makes the difference between a 6,000-fold increase (if bought at the starting price in 2014) and a loss (if bought at $120,000 in November 2025).

The consistency of the price target throughout the four months Bitcoin fluctuated around the $63,000-$80,000 range provides crucial informational value, separate from the specific target number: Sigel did not lower his forecast despite the prolonged bear market that caused Bitcoin's price to fall from its cycle peak. He maintained his view that the current weakness was merely a temporary phase in a longer cycle, not a structural decline in Bitcoin's core value. This steadfast attitude is what differentiates VanEck's published price targets from models that frequently adjust to market price fluctuations.

VanEck's internal base price target for this cycle is $180,000; this is the firm's estimate of the peak Bitcoin price in the current four-year cycle, beginning after the halving event in April 2024. The $100,000 target is lower than the aforementioned base cycle peak and serves as an intermediate milestone in the short term rather than VanEck's ultimate target; therefore, the $100,000 forecast is seen as a cautious short-term view, within the framework of a more ambitious long-term strategy.

The Ministry of Finance's purchase of bonds.

Sigel's attribution of Bitcoin's current price surge directly to the Treasury bond repurchase announcement, rather than regulatory news, provides a useful perspective on how the market is pricing in Bitcoin's core value drivers. Since Bitcoin's volatility is primarily driven by macroeconomic factors (such as fiscal policy, dollar strength, and interest rate expectations), the asset acts as a hedge against macroeconomic risks and inflation, rather than a risky asset influenced by tech market sentiment or cryptocurrency-specific regulatory developments.

The Treasury Department's announcement of doubling the size of its long-term bond purchases altered the supply dynamics of long-term U.S. Treasury bonds. This move increased government demand for existing long-term bonds in the secondary market, which typically pushes long-term yields lower and further slopes the yield curve. A steeper yield curve puts implicit pressure on the Federal Reserve's stance of maintaining high interest rates; this pressure stems from the fact that the fiscal cost of maintaining high short-term interest rates becomes more apparent through the cost spread between short-term borrowing and long-term asset yields. Sigel's concept of "fiscal dominance" describes a scenario in which the Treasury Department's capital raising needs effectively constrain monetary policy; in this case, bond market fluctuations reduce the Fed's ability to maintain tightening policy independently of its inflation control goals.

Historically, Bitcoin has often outperformed at times when the market factored in fiscal risk. With a fixed supply and no national credit risk, Bitcoin becomes more attractive than fiat currencies in scenarios where the risk of currency devaluation due to fiscal measures increases. Sigel identifies Bitcoin's current price reaction to the Treasury Department's announcement as the primary catalyst, rather than any developments specific to the cryptocurrency itself, suggesting that the asset's price movements are primarily driven by its characteristics as a scarce asset and a macroeconomic hedge, rather than by indicators of adoption or legal progress in the cryptocurrency sector.

The argument for a price of $500,000 by 2029.

Sigel's target of reaching $500,000 by 2029 comes with a clear prerequisite: "if the cycle plays out as usual," a caution that reflects the core methodology debate dividing Bitcoin price forecasters. The four-year halving cycle model, which describes Bitcoin price fluctuations over three full cycles from 2012 to 2024 with varying degrees of accuracy, suggests that Bitcoin typically peaks about 12 to 18 months after each halving before entering a prolonged correction phase, then consolidating toward a new all-time high in the period leading up to the next halving.

When applying this cyclical model to the April 2024 halving with a target peak of $500,000, the expected peak would fall in late 2025 or 2026; however, Bitcoin's historical peak of around $126,000 in October 2025 clearly did not reach that figure. The discrepancy between the model's predicted peak and the actual peak in October 2025 suggests one of the following possibilities: the model's price forecast is incorrect but the timing forecast is relatively accurate; the model needs to be recalibrated; or the current bear market is a sign of a prolonged cycle, and the market will eventually reach higher prices.

Sigel also cited Bernstein's analysis, arguing that the four-year halving cycle has effectively been broken by steady buying from institutions through Bitcoin ETFs, which has neutralized the panic selling pressure from individual investors, a factor that had previously caused sharp declines in previous cycles. Bernstein's targets of nearly $150,000 by the end of 2026 and a cycle peak of around $200,000 in 2027 are bolder than Sigel's short-term target of $100,000 in 2027, but lower than his $500,000 scenario in 2029. This reflects a fundamental disagreement about whether the cyclical model will remain in its original form when institutions enter the market via ETFs or will transition to a different return model, with flattened price volatility and a potentially variable peak timing.

Assessment and Conclusion

The context in which the forecast was published is noteworthy: Sigel is the Head of Digital Asset Research at VanEck, an asset management firm that owns a range of exchange-traded cryptocurrency (ETP) products, including spot Bitcoin ETFs, spot Ethereum ETFs, Bitcoin futures ETFs, and AVAX ETFs. VanEck has a commercial interest in rising Bitcoin prices; this upward momentum attracts capital into its ETF products and increases the dollar value of the assets under management – the basis for its management fees. This commercial connection doesn't mean Sigel's analysis is flawed, but it's essential background information when assessing his steadfastness despite the gloomy market conditions – a factor that has led many other prominent analysts to lower or abandon similar price targets.

What gives Sigel's consistent assertions—separated from commercial interests—analytical credibility is the specificity of his macroeconomic framework: his explanation of the current rally is based on the Treasury's bond-buying announcement rather than regulatory news, and his clear condition that the $500,000 price target can only be achieved if the market cycle follows normal patterns (rather than making an unconditional forecast). These demonstrate that he truly delves into the mechanisms of the market rather than simply advocating a particular price trend.

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