Kalshi announced his net worth reached $65 billion, a 6x increase compared to last year
Kalshi is in negotiations for a new funding round with a valuation of $65 billion. The size of the funding round and the investors have not been disclosed; the company was valued at $40 billion at the end of October.
11/14/20263 min read
Revenue comes from sports betting.
It's important to describe what people are actually trading. Kalshi's public identity is market forecasting as a mechanism for aggregating information on elections, policy, and economic outcomes, and this approach reinforces the legal argument that event contracts are derivatives, not gambling. The trading volume suggests that the business is driven by sports.
This isn't a criticism of the product, and it does affect pricing. A sports betting platform operating under a CFTC designation rather than a state gaming license is a regulated arbitrage with enormous operating leverage, and it's also a position dependent on holding arbitrage. Several states have challenged this very fact, and the argument that a match outcome contract is a derivative because it's listed on a designated contract market remains unresolved everywhere it's been raised.
At $65 billion, the company is valued at approximately 650 times its monthly trading volume in October, which is not a revenue multiple since Kalshi charges a small fee on that volume, and a revenue multiple implies something extraordinary in any sense.
The computing market is a new trend.
Kalshi announced it will launch indices, single-stock perpetual futures, and a computing market. The third is worth mentioning, but no details have been released.
A functioning futures market for GPU capacity would be truly beneficial. Computing is currently being contracted through bilateral multi-year leases, which is why stories of transitioning from cryptocurrency mining to AI data centers value companies based on backlog contract orders: there's no liquid market to price capacity. TeraWulf, Riot, MARA, and Core Scientific all sold into that illiquid market. A standardized, exchange-traded computing contract would allow buyers to hedge and sellers to profit from capacity without a twenty-year counterparty commitment.
The main hurdles are those that have thwarted previous attempts to finance computing. Delivery requires a standardized unit, and a GPU hour is not interchangeable across chip generations, connections, locations, or power costs. Without physical delivery, the contract would be settled in cash based on an index, and currently no reliable computing price index exists. Kalshi's event contract structure addresses some of these issues by focusing on observable outcomes rather than delivery, a clever workaround that creates something closer to a market for betting on computing prices than a hedging tool.
Single-stock perpetual futures contracts are another noteworthy development, emerging as Payward and Bitnomial attempt to issue US perpetual contracts on Hyperliquid through a CFTC-regulated implementation unit. Kalshi holds the rights that those agreements are attempting to borrow from.
Assessment and Conclusion
Elizabeth Warren will assume the chairmanship of the Senate Banking Committee in January, and her aides have listed the prediction market as one of their priorities, accompanied by a warning to preserve documents. The specific cases she can point to are clear: a U.S. Army soldier accused of involvement in Polymarket bets on Maduro's capture, and a former White House teleprompter operator allegedly brokered over $172,000 in Kalshi transactions made with prior access to presidential speeches.
These cases illustrate a structural problem. Laws governing insider trading of securities and commodities are built on clearly defined obligations for shareholders and market participants, and a contract outlining what a government official will do has no equivalent framework. There is no definitive answer as to who is obligated to refrain from trading in advance of a policy decision, meaning that enforcement is being constructed on a case-by-case basis.
A company valued at $65 billion based on its legal standing, entering a Congress with a hostile Banking Commission chairman who has made it a top priority, carries a risk that a sixfold increase in value over twelve months doesn't clearly reflect. Whether the negotiations will end at that figure is the question ahead. Whether the designations over the next two years will be the deciding factor.
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Compiled and analyzed by HCCVenture
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