Gemini has been granted permission by the CFTC to open a crypto prediction market

A legal victory after 5 years of effort

Cryptocurrency exchange Gemini Space Station, Inc. has reached a significant legal milestone after the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) granted its subsidiary, Gemini Titan, LLC, a Designated Contract Market (DCM) license — paving the way for the company to offer regulated prediction markets to U.S. customers.

This approval, the culmination of a five-year licensing process first initiated in March 2020, places Gemini in the closely supervised category alongside regulated futures exchanges and opens a new frontier in the US cryptocurrency financial market.

Actual Event Contracts and Yes/No Contracts

Under the DCM framework, Gemini will begin by launching "yes or no" binary event contracts that allow traders to speculate on future outcomes such as price levels, economic indicators, political events, or market milestones.

These contracts may include questions such as whether Bitcoin will exceed a certain price level by the end of the year or other quantifiable outcomes. These products gain legal legitimacy through oversight by the CFTC, the US regulatory body for derivatives and futures markets.

Initially, US users can access these prediction markets through Gemini's web interface using US dollars in their accounts, and mobile app support is expected in the near future. Beyond event contracts, Gemini has demonstrated ambitions to expand into other regulated derivatives such as cryptocurrency futures, options, and perpetual contracts – products previously inaccessible to retail traders in the US due to stringent regulatory restrictions.

From peripheral markets to regulated markets

Prediction markets—platforms where users trade contracts tied to actual outcomes—have gained attention in recent years due to their ability to aggregate shared expectations about future events.

Cryptocurrency-based platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket have established a foothold in this sector, with Polymarket notably having relaunched its service for US users by leveraging its own CFTC-licensed exchange.

Until recently, many such platforms operated on the fringes of US regulation due to the CFTC's focused oversight of derivative products. Gemini's approval signals a shift: regulators are increasingly willing to bring forecasting markets under regulation rather than pushing them overseas, provided the underlying platforms meet stringent compliance standards.

Our review perspective

Gemini's DCM license marks a significant milestone in the maturation of the cryptocurrency financial market in the United States. By bringing the prediction market into the regulated domain, the exchange not only expands its product portfolio but also legitimizes an asset class that combines elements of derivatives, behavioral finance, and collective forecasting. As US regulators continue to engage with the cryptocurrency ecosystem, this approval could spur broader institutional interest and inspire further innovation at the intersection of traditional finance and digital asset markets.

Disclaimer: The information presented in this article is the author's personal opinion in the field of cryptocurrency. This is not financial or investment advice. All investment decisions should be based on careful consideration of your personal portfolio and risk tolerance. The views expressed in this article do not represent the official stance of the platform. We recommend that readers conduct their own research and consult with experts before making any investment decisions.