Ethereum held by stakes surpassed 34.35% of the total supply upon the launch of EIP-8363

Data from ValidatorQueue confirms that the total amount of Ethereum staked has reached 41.9 million ETH, representing 34.35% of the total circulating supply of approximately 120.7 million ETH.

8/15/20265 min read

What data does ValidatorQueue contain?

The ValidatorQueue chart records data from approximately May 12th to August 13th, displaying two indicators on the same frame. The blue bar series tracks the Total amount of ETH staked (units: million ETH); this indicator increased from approximately 38.5 million in mid-May to 41.0 million in early July and reached 41.9 million on August 13th without any significant decrease during this period. The pink line tracks the percentage of the total supply staked (units: million ETH); This percentage increased from approximately 31.5% in mid-May to 32.5% in early June, remained around 33% throughout late June and July, then surpassed 34% in late July and reached 34.35% on August 13 (as shown in the details when hovering over the chart).

The correlation between these two indicators is almost perfect, as expected based on the mathematical relationship between the amount of ETH staked and the percentage of the fixed circulating supply it represents. Slight discrepancies at certain times reflect small increases in the total circulating supply due to new ETH issuance that partially offset the increase in the amount of ETH staked, causing the percentage increase to be slightly slower than the actual amount of ETH staked.

The period from late June to early July showed a short-term pause of approximately 40.5 million ETH before the growth momentum resumed; this coincided with a temporary balance between net ETH withdrawals and new ETH inflows into staking, occurring during peak exit queue activity. The sustained upward trend following that pause indicates a market where the number of new participants and recommitting validators consistently outnumbered those withdrawing from the system throughout the 90-day period.

34% locked, 44% price drop.

On August 10th, Bitfinex summarized this divergence in a widely circulated post: "ETH staked has surged to a record 41.7 million – equivalent to one-third of the total circulating ETH – while the price has fallen from $3,400 in January to $1,900." This development defies conventional supply and demand logic, as the withdrawal of ETH from circulation (reduced liquidity) should support the price. The explanation lies in the difference between the available supply for trading and the demand needed to absorb that supply.

Staking reduces the supply of liquidity available for trading on exchanges; considered individually, this is a structural change that benefits the price. However, staking does not generate demand from buyers who did not intend to hold ETH in the first place. If the macroeconomic environment, market sentiment towards ETH, and alternative investment options all create insufficient new demand to absorb even the reduced liquidity supply, the price could still fall in parallel with the increase in staked ETH. The divergence in August 2026 is evidence of that scenario: record staking participation reflects the actions of long-term investors – those who choose to lock in assets rather than sell; while the price decline reflects a lack of demand from new buyers to offset selling pressure from non-staking participants.

Data on exchange cash flow further reinforces this picture. Net cash flow on exchanges fell to a negative 48,555 ETH on July 29th and remained at a negative 18,113 ETH on August 5th. This indicates that the amount of ETH withdrawn from exchanges to be transferred to staking and custody mechanisms is consistently greater than the amount of ETH deposited into exchanges awaiting sale. The negative net cash flow on exchanges, coupled with falling prices, suggests a market where long-term investors are moving ETH out of trading platforms, while other market participants are selling off amidst this cash flow shift.

Lowest yield in three years

The impact of record participation levels on staking yields is clearly demonstrated by the yield data. The 7-day APR (annual yield per square peg) for staking as of early August 2026 was approximately 2.6%, down from a peak of 5.06% in June 2023; this represents a 47% decrease in yield over three years, while the amount of ETH staked has nearly doubled. The mathematical relationship here is simple: the more validators share a fixed-out fund, the more the reward per validator shrinks, and record participation levels have led to a drop in yield to record lows.

The base APR of 2.6% from the consensus layer, combined with rewards from the execution layer and MEV earnings, yields a total return of approximately 3% to 3.8% for efficiently functioning validators, according to current estimates. This 2.6% figure represents the lowest consensus layer APR since around mid-2023; this suggests that any new validator entering the staking market in August 2026 will have to accept significantly lower returns than validators who joined at any point between 2020 and 2023.

The demographic accepting the 2.6% yield on ETH (at current prices) has shifted significantly toward institutions; this group's decision-making process includes factors beyond simply optimizing yields. As of July 12th, BitMine Immersion Technologies had staked approximately 4.9 million ETH – representing nearly 85% of its total Ethereum holdings – locking in over $9 billion worth of ETH to benefit from the 2.6% yield. This institutional approach views the staked ETH as a type of long-term yield-generating infrastructure, rather than focusing on maximizing quarterly returns.

Assessment and Conclusion

The milestone of 34.35% of the supply being staked on August 13th transformed EIP-8363 and EIP-8361 into pressing protocol governance issues, rather than purely theoretical research discussions. At this 34.35% level, reaching the 50% threshold—the level that would trigger the zero net issuance mechanism under both proposals—requires an additional 15.65 percentage points of participation; this is equivalent to approximately 18.9 million more ETH being put into staking compared to the current level.

Whether this additional staking will materialize depends on the interplay between yields, prices, and institutional demand for ETH-yielding products—a factor that has largely driven the increase in participation in 2026. If EIP-8363 is passed before reaching 50%, the yield-devaluation mechanism it imposes will dampen marginal economic incentives, potentially stifling growth before reaching 50%. Conversely, if EIP-8363 is not passed, then at the current rate of adding approximately 5.5 million ETH every 7.5 months, the market will reach 50% in about 12 to 18 months; however, changing market conditions mean any specific timeline is merely speculative.

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