Bitwise has applied for permission to establish an ETF

Is the prediction market on the rise?

Cryptocurrency asset management firm Bitwise has filed an application with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to launch a series of six exchange-traded funds (ETFs) under the new brand " PredictionShares ," designed to track binary event contracts tied to future U.S. election results.

The filings, submitted on February 17, target the 2028 presidential election and the 2026 congressional midterm races ( House and Senate ), with separate funds allocated to the Democratic and Republican outcomes in each cycle. This move follows a surge in forecast market volume—particularly on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi—and amid the CFTC's strong assertion of exclusive federal jurisdiction over these instruments.

Bitwise joins Roundhill Investments and GraniteShares in the race to package political prediction markets into accessible and regulated ETF shells, potentially democratizing access to event-driven speculation while navigating a complex regulatory landscape.

Details about PredictionShares' profile

Each ETF aims for capital growth by investing at least 80% of its net assets in derivatives (binary event contracts) linked to specific political outcomes. These contracts are typically settled at $1 for a win and $0 for a loss, similar to the structure on CFTC-registered platforms like Kalshi or decentralized markets like Polymarket.

Bitwise's proposed product portfolio, expected to be listed on NYSE Arca, includes:

Presidential election in 2028:

• PredictionShares predicts Democratic president will win in 2028.

• PredictionShares predicts Republican president will win the 2028 election .

2026 Midterm Elections:

• PredictionShares predicts the Democratic Party will gain a majority in the Senate in 2026.

• PredictionShares predicts Republican majority in Senate in 2026.

• PredictionShares predicts Democrats will gain a majority in the House of Representatives in 2026.

• PredictionShares predicts Republican Party will gain a majority in the House of Representatives in 2026.

These funds will provide indirect access without requiring users to trade directly on prediction platforms—offering access to brokerage accounts, potential tax advantages in retirement accounts, and reduced operational barriers compared to direct participation.

Financing political instability

The inclusion of election forecasting in ETFs reflects a broader financialization trend—where virtually every measurable risk becomes tradable. From volatility indices to weather derivatives, markets are increasingly commercializing uncertainty.

However, tools related to elections are subject to closer scrutiny due to concerns about influence, manipulation, and ethical boundaries.

There is a clear need for political risk hedging among sophisticated organizations and investors. Corporations affected by changes in regulation, taxation, or trade policy outcomes may seek structured risk hedging tools.

Our review

Bitwise—known for its groundbreaking cryptocurrency products—positions PredictionShares as a bridge between traditional finance and the information market. In the multi-crisis era of 2026, where politics increasingly fuels volatility, these filings highlight Wall Street's appetite for profiting from predictability. The approval timeline remains uncertain, but the race has begun—stay tuned for updates as the SEC reviews and competitors join.

Disclaimer: The information presented in this article is the author's personal opinion in the field of cryptocurrency. This is not financial or investment advice. All investment decisions should be based on careful consideration of your personal portfolio and risk tolerance. The views expressed in this article do not represent the official stance of the platform. We recommend that readers conduct their own research and consult with experts before making any investment decisions.

Compiled and analyzed by HCCVenture

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